One of the little things about climate change that we’re not told often enough is that beating it does not require the evisceration of every fossil fuel use. To avoid that terror of RCP 8.5 – oft known as business as usual, which it ain’t – we needed only to invent fracking. Which we did, so we’ve avoided it.
No, really, the model which has Flipper boiling in those fumes of the last ice floe requires that we run out of conventional oil and gas, don’t use unconventional and thus turn back to coal. Further, that we use energy with the inefficiency we did in the 1970s and 1980s. We have increased efficiency, we invented fracking so can and do use unconventional oil and gas and we’re not, not in the slightest, turning back to coal. The extreme predictions are known to be wrong that is.
To get us further away from that extreme we do need to go further, sure we do. Which is exactly what is happening:
Renewable sources such as wind and solar generated 38% percent of the 27-member state bloc’s electricity in 2020, with fossil fuels such as coal and gas contributing 37%, the report by think tanks Ember and Agora Energiewende showed.
That means we’re not on RCP 8.5, obviously, but it also means we’re not on RCP 6 either. We’re getting closer to RCP 4.5 in fact. Where climate change is a bit of a bore but not all that much of a problem.
But it gets better:
Electric vehicles are close to the “tipping point” of rapid mass adoption thanks to the plummeting cost of batteries, experts say.
Global sales rose 43% in 2020, but even faster growth is anticipated when continuing falls in battery prices bring the price of electric cars dipping below that of equivalent petrol and diesel models, even without subsidies. The latest analyses forecast that to happen some time between 2023 and 2025.
Once electric cars are cheaper then they will indeed be mass market. That’s just how we humans work. As with solar and coal of course, we buy more when the one becomes cheaper than the other.
That is, climate change is largely solved already. We’ve done what was needed, invented the new technologies, made them cheap enough that people will voluntarily use them and there we are, job done.
Sure, we can still insist that the entire climate change scare is the sort of jellied tripe that we’d not mush up for infant pap but the point here is that even if it isn’t it’s still something we’ve already solved.
Non-fossil is cheaper than fossil. We’re done, now we just wait the capital cycle out and as people replace what wears out we will be in that Greta approved future.